In this Business English News lesson: As the world rang in 2013, many analysts and commentators feel that it’s time to pull out the crystal ball and try to determine what’s in store in the coming 12 months. As the OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria explains, there’s still a lot of work to do.
The world economy is far from being out of the woods. The US ‘debt ceiling debate’, if it materializes, could tip an already weak economy into recession, while failure to solve the euro area crisis could lead to a major financial shock and global downturn. Governments must act decisively, using all the tools at their disposal to turn confidence around and boost growth and jobs.
As the world rang in 2013, many analysts and commentators feel that it’s time to pull out the crystal ball and try to determine what’s in store in the coming 12 months. As the OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria explains, there’s still a lot of work to do:
“The world economy is far from being out of the woods. The US ‘debt ceiling debate’, if it materializes, could tip an already weak economy into recession, while failure to solve the euro area crisis could lead to a major financial shock and global downturn. Governments must act decisively, using all the tools at their disposal to turn confidence around and boost growth and jobs.”
With global economic growth expected to expand at a modest 2.4% this year and 3.2% in 2014, the prospects for the next two years continue to be challenging, filled with major uncertainties and risks slanted toward the downside. According to a recent UN report:
“Weaknesses in the major developed economies are at the root of the global economic slowdown. Most of them, but particularly those in Europe, are trapped in a vicious cycle of high unemployment, financial sector fragility, heightened sovereign risks, fiscal austerity, and low growth.”
The outlook for the up-and-coming markets is a fair bit brighter, however, as they seem to have entered a period of partnership. As Business Insider notes, we’ll soon see Chinese and Brazilian brands selling to the middle classes in Turkey, India or South Africa.
“While the last two decades were about developed markets catering to emerging ones, and emerging markets increasingly catering to developed ones; now get ready for an explosion in products and services from emerging markets for emerging markets.”
In Europe, tough times are sure to continue if unemployment isn’t brought in to check soon. As the Huffington Post suggests, with an unemployment rate of nearly 12%, or 26M people, EU governments have their work cut out for them:
“The figures illustrate the daunting tasks confronting European Union officials. While the threat of a collapse of the Eurozone due to too much government debt may have receded, the economies in many EU countries stubbornly refuse to expand and joblessness continues to rise, creating social instability.”
Despite the gloomy financial numbers elsewhere, it’s sunny days ahead for the global smartphone makers as consumers are actually spending more to acquire higher-end devices. As Forbes reports, roughly 786 million smartphones were sold last year, and China’s insatiable need for Android, not Apple, is the reason why:
“China is by far the fastest-growing smartphone market with a year-on-year growth of 85 percent in 2012, and this growth is being driven by the demand for Android phones. You won’t see people camping out for them, or singing funny songs hailing their creator, but that’s beside the point.”
Moving from tech to energy, 2013 should also see a drop in oil prices, though forecasters warn that it’s impossible to predict events – such as tensions in the Middle East – that caused gasoline prices to spike in 2011 and 2012. From the Huffington Post:
“Gas prices set records each of the past two years for a few reasons. Global demand has risen as the developing economies burn more gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. At the same time, unrest in the Middle East has sparked fears of widespread supply disruptions in a region that produces a quarter of the world’s oil.”
Perhaps the economic dark horse of 2013 will be Canada, and their hopes for building the Keystone and Northern Gateway pipelines to transport oil to the US and Asia. Though hopes were dashed in 2012, Federal Resources Minister Joe Oliver tells Post Media the smell of money may be too much for many to resist:
“I am still of the belief that we can get this done, on the assumption, of course, that it passes regulatory muster. If the conclusion is this project can be safe for Canadians and safe for the environment, that will go a long way in respect to people who are open-minded to the facts.”
Although there’s no way to know for sure what the future holds, with a bit of luck, some hard work, and common sense, 2013 will hopefully be a year of accomplishments for us all. Perhaps Abraham Lincoln summarized it best when he declared:
“The best way to predict the future is to create it yourself.”